2025 Oscar nominations predictions: Official odds favor ‘Emilia Pérez,’ ‘The Brutalist,’ and ‘Conclave’ (2025)

2025 Oscar nominations predictions: Official odds favor ‘Emilia Pérez,’ ‘The Brutalist,’ and ‘Conclave’ (1)

The Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday after being twice-delayed due to the Los Angeles wildfires. Almost 10,000 registered Gold Derby users have placed their bets in all categories, and we’ve crunched the numbers to generate our official odds.

Emilia Pérez is expected to dominate the list with 11 nominations including Best Picture, Best Director (Jacques Audiard), Best Actress (Karla Sofía Gascón), Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), and Best Adapted Screenplay, with three expected wins for Saldaña, Best Original Song (“El Mal”), and Best International Feature. But the film expected to collect the top prizes is The Brutalist. Both of those movies won Golden Globes for Best Picture — Emilia as a comedy/musical, Brutalist as a drama — but it’s the latter that has jumped the top of our Oscars Best Picture rankings. Of its 10 anticipated noms, The Brutalist is also ahead to win Best Director (Brady Corbet), Best Actor (Adrien Brody), Best Cinematography, and Best Original Score.

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Also with a projected 10 nominations will be Conclave, the papal political thriller from director Edward Berger. His whose previous film, All Quiet on the Western Front, was a hit at the Oscars with four trophies in nine nominations, though Berger was notably snubbed from the Best Director lineup. He’ll make it in this time, according to our forecast. So will lead actor Ralph Fiennes, who hasn’t been nominated at the Oscars since The English Patient (1996). The film’s best bet for a win is Best Adapted Screenplay for writer Peter Straughan, who won the Golden Globe for Conclave and was a previous Oscar nominee for cowriting Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011).

Wicked is slated to be next in line with eight bids. The first installment of the two-part Broadway musical adaptation is in line to collect nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress (Cynthia Erivo), and Best Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), in addition to several below-the-line nods, of which it’s the frontrunner to win Best Costume Design and Best Production Design. Dune: Part Two is next up, with a predicted seven noms, including Best Picture. That would be three shy of the first installment’s haul; Dune: Part One ended up winning six statuettes out of its 10 bids, and many of those winning craftspeople are expected to return to their respective races with repeat victories predicted for Best Film Editing, Best Sound, and Best Visual Effects. Rounding out the Best Picture race: Anora, A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, and The Substance. Make or update your own predictions here before the Jan. 23 announcement.

Here is the complete list of Gold Derby’s official Oscar nomination odds, with the current projected winners highlighted in gold.

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BEST PICTURE
The Brutalist — 6/1
Anora — 13/2
Conclave — 7/1
Emilia Pérez — 7/1
Wicked — 17/2
A Complete Unknown — 21/2
Dune: Part Two — 23/2
The Substance — 14/1
A Real Pain — 18/1
Sing Sing — 25/1

BEST DIRECTOR
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist — 9/5
Sean Baker, Anora — 4/1
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez — 5/1
Edward Berger, Conclave — 11/2
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance — 23/2

BEST ACTRESS
Demi Moore, The Substance — 12/5
Mikey Madison, Anora — 11/4
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez — 11/2
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked — 15/2
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here — 21/2

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist — 39/20
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave — 39/10
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown — 4/1
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing — 11/2
Daniel Craig, Queer — 18/1

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez, 83/50
Ariana Grande, Wicked — 37/10
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave — 6/1
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist — 17/2
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl — 22/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain — 83/50
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist — 5/1
Yura Borisov, Anora — 6/1
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown — 13/2
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice — 16/1

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave — 83/50
Sing Sing — 5/1
Emilia Pérez — 5/1
Nickel Boys — 7/1
A Complete Unknown — 9/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora — 41/20
The Brutalist — 17/5
A Real Pain — 4/1
The Substance — 7/1
Hard Truths — 18/1

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist — 15/8
Dune: Part Two — 37/10
Nosferatu — 15/2
Conclave — 9/1
Nickel Boys — 10/1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Wicked — 31/20
Dune: Part Two — 5/1
Nosferatu — 6/1
Gladiator II — 9/1
Conclave — 13/1

BEST FILM EDITING
Dune: Part Two — 82/25
Conclave — 4/1
Anora — 9/2
The Brutalist — 5/1
Emilia Pérez — 8/1

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Substance — 83/50
Wicked — 4/1
Nosferatu — 7/1
A Different Man — 15/2
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice — 12/1

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Wicked — 7/4
Dune: Part Two — 4/1
The Brutalist — 4/1
Conclave — 17/2
Nosferatu — 10/1

BEST SCORE
The Brutalist — 41/20
Conclave — 16/5
Emilia Pérez — 11/2
The Wild Robot — 15/2
Challengers — 15/2

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BEST SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez — 9/5
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot — 37/10
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez — 6/1
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight — 15/2
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing — 20/1

BEST SOUND
Dune: Part Two — 46/25
Wicked — 37/10
A Complete Unknown — 6/1
Emilia Pérez — 7/1
Gladiator II — 15/2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two — 9/5
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 9/2
Wicked — 13/2
Better Man — 15/2
Gladiator II — 19/2

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Wild Robot — 46/25
Flow — 17/5
Inside Out 2 — 9/2
Memoir of a Snail — 15/2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 8/1

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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No Other Land — 17/10
Sugarcane — 9/2
Daughters — 13/2
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 8/1
Black Box Diaries — 14/1

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Emilia Pérez — 13/8
I’m Still Here — 9/2
The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 9/2
Kneecap — 17/2
Flow — 13/1

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
A Bear Named Wojtek — 13/5
Beautiful Men — 39/10
Yuck! — 6/1
Wander to Wonder — 6/1
A Crab in the Pool — 14/1

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Once Upon a Time in Ukraine — 27/10
I Am Ready, Warden — 69/20
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World — 5/1
Incident — 19/2
Death by Numbers
— 10/1

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent — 12/5
The Masterpiece — 37/10
An Orange from Jaffa — 11/2
Anuja — 15/2
Dovecote — 21/2

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2025 Oscar nominations predictions: Official odds favor ‘Emilia Pérez,’ ‘The Brutalist,’ and ‘Conclave’ (2025)
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